Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Answer to basketball simulation
01-72 = makes shot
73-00 = misses
here's some digits:
5730 3485 3246 75 4563
2pts 1pt 2pts 0pts 2pts.
For the 5 runs above my average would be: (2 + 1 + 2 + 0 + 2)/5 = 1.4
That's the simulation.
Now for the expected value
P(0) = 0.28 (misses first shot and is done)
P(1) = (.72)*(.28) (makes the first, misses the second)
P(2) = (.72)^2 (makes both)
Now just run the expected value formula with 0, 1, 2 and the 3 probabilities.
Answers, comments and hints to the review
If the each ticket was bought separately, that would make the formula C + C + C + F + F + ... The mean is the same for either formula. But if the second formula was used, you'd have to do the Pythagorean formula thing.
3b) First do 3C = 450 and 5F = 500; then do sqrt(450^2 + 500^2)
3c) This is only about ONE of each tix: C - F. You can take it from there...
6) Make a 2-way table: 51% in the upper left corner. The other two numbers go on the outside.
a) only 3% is left in the lower right corner
b) P(left|right) = 51/82 = 62.2%. Since P(left) = 66%, this is fairly different, so they are not independent.
7a) 1 - (89/90)^10
7b) 1 - (9/10)^10
7c) 1 - (89/90)^5*(9/10)^5
25d) (0.93)^4*(0.07)
28a) mean = 4
28b) sd = 3.2
28c) Think and read carefully! If the first is bigger than the second then:
(first - second) > zero
So we want to use the mean and sd from above to compare to zero:
z = (0 - 4)/3.2 = -1.249
P(z>-1.249) = (using normalcdf) = 89.4%
42a) 1/100 = 0.01
42b) (.99)(.99)(.01) = 0.009801
42c) (.99)^100 = 0.366
42d) You want to be first!
42e) It doesn't matter! Everyone has a 1% chance!
Now if you're thinking carefully about (e), you might be thinking: "Hey, don't the probabilities change?" Watch this!
Prob(3rd person wins) = (99/100)*(98/99)*(1/98) = 1% (notice how all the fractions reduce!)
Pretty cool, huh?
I will check e-mail at about 10-ish tonight. If you are feeling frustrated, drop a line to:
mrmathman @ gmail.com
I will reply tonight.
Good luck!
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
THE LAST ASSIGNMENT OF 07!!!
Ch. 11 #15: Run 10 times and find the expected value of this problem in theory.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Monday, December 10, 2007
Friday, December 07, 2007
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Friday, November 30, 2007
Answers to Friday's work
1. 0.45
2. 0.87
Chapter 14 #12b)
1. (0.55)^2 = 0.3025
2. (0.45)^2 = 0.2025
3. 1 - (0.87)^2 = 0.2431
Chapter 15 #8
a) P(male | cat) = 6/18 = 0.333
b) P(cat | female) = 12/28 = 0.429
c) P(female | dog) = 16/24
Chapter 15 #10
a) 0.62
b) 0.26/0.30 = 0.867
c) 0.12/0.62 = 0.194
d) 0.66
Chapter 15 #24
No! P(death penalty) = 62%, but P(dp | rep) = 26/30 = 86.7% and P(dp
| dem) = 12/36 = 33%, so party is clearly NOT independent of party!
Quiz on Monday!!!
Answers to Thursday's work
a) 0.14
b) 0.23
c) 0.77
Ch. 15 #20
a) P(Canada | Mexico) = 0.04/0.09 = 0.444
b) No, 4% have been to both
c) No, P(Canada) = 18%, which does not equal part (a), above, so not
independent.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Monday, November 26, 2007
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
The last 4 days before Thanksgiving
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
down the river
means. We'll wrap it up tomorrow.
HW: Ch. 13 #9-15, 32, 34, 36; Ch. 12 #7, 9--Due Friday!
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Monday, November 05, 2007
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Monday, October 29, 2007
Monday Homework
Here are some of the class notes:
Calling on students for chance cards.
Simple Random Sample:
Use the Random Integer command on my calculator to randomly pick who to call on.
OR:
Put everyone's name in a hat and draw 5 names.
Stratified Random Sample:
I might stratify by class grades. Divide the class into five groups
(A, B, C, D, F) and randomly pick some students to participate from
each group. I think students with high grades are more likely to
participate and vice versa, so this will give me a good
representation.
Cluster sample:
Randomly pick one of the 8 table groups and call on everyone in that group.
Systematic Random Sample:
Use the roll sheet and pick every 5th person.
OR:
Pick every 3rd person as you arrive to class.
Population: Rancho Students
Question: Is RCHS a quality school?
Possible Strata?
Stratifying by GPA:
I would divide the student body into 3 groups: high, med and low GPA.
I would then randomly choose some students to survey from each group.
I think that each of these groups will have very different opinions
about RCHS and I want to make sure that each group is represented.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Test tomorrow!
Study chapters 7 through 10 and normal problems
Study your worksheet from Chapter 10
Study your old regression test on temp/crawling
Study Ch. 9 #1
Study extrapolation, outliers and influential points and the standard
deviation of the residuals
Chapter 10 #1 and 2
Monday, October 22, 2007
Friday, October 19, 2007
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Starting Chapter 10
1979—226,260
1980—907,075
1981—2,826,095
Year vs. acres devastated by the gypsy moth.
Predict for 1982, please!
Also, MC packet #6
Monday, October 15, 2007
Influential?
Ch. 9 #11-16
Article #4 due Friday--just write a half-page summary
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Review Answers
17c) First take the squareroot of 0.924. I forget exactly what this is, but it is 0.9something. This tells us there is a strong, positive, linear relationship between tar and nicotine.
17d) For every 1 more mg of tar, we predict about 0.065 more mg of nicotine.
17e) Even with no tar, we still predict about 0.154 mg of nicotine.
1d) 92.3% of the variation in age can be explained by the regression on age.
1f) She is shorter than predicted, for her age.
1g) Wait until next week.
See you in the morning!
Now go to bed! :o)
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Practice Test
Add to #10 the interpretation of the y-intercept
Parts of this assignment will graded tomorrow
and this grade will be part of your test grade.
Monday, October 08, 2007
Friday, October 05, 2007
Thursdays HW
#25ef, 29c
#30: slope, y-intercept, r, R2, and prediction for 2002
Article #3!!!
No homework for Friday
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Scatterplots
If you didn't get c, d and e right on the test, you need to also do:
Ch. 6 #28
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Test tomorrow!
The data suggest that a higher percentage of non-smokers continue their education beyond High School than smokers.
Non-smokers have a higher percentage of 4-year college attendees (48%) than smokers (26%). Less of non-smokers have only High School educations (40%) than smokers (64%). Therefore, smoking habits are associated with education level and these variables are NOT independent.
Here is my answer from the CUSS'ing quiz about Halloween candy:
Note to self: since one data set is skewed, I will use the median and IQR:
The boys collected more candy than girls with a median of 62 compared to 45.5.
The boys were skewed left whereas the girls are fairly symmetrical.
(note: no comparison word really needed)
The boys have slightly more spread than the girls. The boys have an
IQR of 31 and a range of 65, while the girls have an IQR of 25 and a
range of 60.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Homecoming
If you finish the review by Monday and give me a chance card.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Review assignment starting on page 105
# 5, 21(outlier test on c!),
#25-27, 29(a-g + make a box-plot),
#31, 32
Double stamped:
once Friday (for starting)
once Tuesday (when you should be DONE)
Or by Monday for a Chance Card!
ALSO: Article #2 due Friday
http://www.mrderksen.com/art2.htm
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Monday, September 17, 2007
A nice answer from the quiz
The boys collected more candy than girls with a median of 62 compared to 45.5.
The boys were skewed left whereas the girls are fairly symmetrical.
(note: no comparison word really needed)
The boys have slightly more spread than the girls. The boys have an
IQR of 31 and a range of 65, while the girls have an IQR of 25 and a
range of 60.
Starting Chapter 6
We will finish it on Wednesday, so hang on tight.
Test on chapters 1-6 next Wednesday.
Don't forget Article #2 is due Friday.
Classwork: Ch. 6 #5, 6, 11
HW:
Ch. 6 #7 and 15
Ch. 5 #30 (you have the ogive on your handout to write on)
Friday, September 14, 2007
Ogives!
5 to see what you missed.
It looks like our schedule for next week is this:
Mon-Wed: Work very hard and focused and do Chapter 6
Thur-Fri: Review
Mon: Review
Tues or Wed: Test on Unit 1: Chapters 1-6
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Last homework for the week
Fun web site o' the day:
http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/ph/stddev.html
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Put that calculator to work!
Website from today:
http://www.mathsnet.net/asa2/modules/shodor/plop/
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Monday, September 10, 2007
Here comes chapter 5
Tutoring this week: Wed and Thur, 2:30 - 3:15
Last Friday we discussed Ch. 4 #14. We COMPARED the shape, centers
and spreads of the two distributions.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Most Important Stuff in Chapter 4
HW: Ch. 4 #8, 12, 17, 24 + Article #1 summary from the web
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
No Homework
In class we learned how use Stat Edit (page 11) and Stat Plot (page
43) and we did this with the hair length data from each class.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Chapter 3, Day 2
class data and we did #21.
Homework: Ch. 3 #15, 16, 18
Die is due on Tuesday
Syllabus and chapter 1 quiz on Wednesday
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Monday, August 27, 2007
Monday, August 27th
Due tomorrow: One dot-plot of the M&M data (pick any color or the
total) and 2 sentences describing your dotplot.
Due the Tuesday after Labor Day: 1 homemade die. The cube must be
homemade. 4 pts. for durability, 4 pts. for artistic/creativity, 4
pts. for punctuality.
Stuff to consider: Bring in Kleenex, start bringing your calculator,
read your syllabus.
Thanks for a great first day!
Monday, July 02, 2007
Summer "Homework"
1) Make sure you have a graphing calculator for fall
and
2) Think about how ridiculous the weather man is: he tells you what the average high temperature is for today and then he tells you today's high, but he doesn't really tell you whether today is unusual or not. How would you know? How could you tell someone whether today is unusually hot or cold?
Monday, May 21, 2007
Project instructions
Due Wed, May 30
This section should be a thorough explanation of how you collected your data and be a beautiful example of how much you've learned this year about the difficulties getting a representative sample. Examples of what you should include are:
- How you collected your data
- Why you are confident your sample matches your population
- Biases avoided and not avoided
- A copy of any survey that was filled out
- Your data: either in "Excel" format or in a table/matrix summary. You need at least 75 people/subjects for each group you want to compare. Your data should be broken up by any category you want to compare.
III. Exploring the Data (25 points)
Due Fri, June 1
- This section should be an outstanding example of exploratory data analysis (the first unit in our text). Graphs should show the comparisons between all relevant groups you are comparing. You should state any preliminary conclusions that can be drawn by using your eyeballs.
- Graphs of your data
- Statistics from your data
- Descriptions of the graphs and statistics.
IV. Analyzing the Data (25 points)
Due Fri, June 1
Analyze your data using whatever method(s) is appropriate for your data. Your conclusion should be nicely written using all appropriate statistical support. Remember that confidence intervals can be a powerful method for comparing different groups.
- Hypothesis Test (with conditions checked) and/or
- Confidence Intervals (with conditions checked) and/or
- Regression
- Your Grand Conclusion!
V. Presentation (20 points)
2nd and 5th: Tuesday, June 12th
4th: Friday, June 1st
Must include:
- Clearly communicate your question and how you collected your data. (5 pts.)
- Visually communication of some sort—you choose the method. (5pts.)
- Clearly communicate your conclusion (5 pts.).
- Be interesting to listen to and give us some sort of "hook" to inspire us to listen (5 pts).
- Do not read off your visual aid—use note cards or your report. Be careful how you communicate numbers to the class—too many numbers at once is confusing, as is too many decimal places.
VI. Success!? (15 points)
I will evaluate the overall success and difficulty of your project. More challenging data collection issues add to your score. Small sample sizes or an overly simple question will lower your score.
Details You Should Know
- Tardies during the project will cost you points.
- NO NO NO NO NO late work is accepted without penalty—even with excused absences. No late presentations will be scheduled
- Make your own copies anything you turn in. Once you turn in one part of your report, I need to keep it.
- Don't get lazy—this is to be the summation of what you've learned all year.
- Please type your paper. Hand-done work is acceptable for some graphs, etc if it is done very neatly.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Choosing a test
http://www.ltcconline.net/greenl/java/Statistics/StatsMatch/StatsMatch.htm
Note: the wording on this website is more vague than the AP test. The AP test always asks for "a 95% confidence interval" if it wants an interval (or some other %). Also, the AP problems are longer, and thus have more information that will guide you to deciding what to do.
However, I think that after you 10 or so of these, you'll get used to the wording of this site and it will be good practice. If it is just always frustrating, switch to finding the tests and intervals in your notebook. Every released test (A, B, C,...) has at least one.
Note: this website includes prediction intervals, which you do not
need to know.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Choosing a test
use for a given problem:
http://www.ltcconline.net/greenl/java/Statistics/StatsMatch/StatsMatch.htm
Note: this website includes prediction intervals, which you do not
need to know.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Monday, April 30, 2007
Monday, April 29th
Also: NAME IT: E-5, G-4, I-3, K-4, L-4
Green sheet quiz first thing tomorrow! Last quiz of the year!!!!
Friday, April 27, 2007
Read this!
End of Star testing week
**Did I-5 (Goodness of fit)
**MC 02 #11 and 19
**C-2
**And finally, a chi-square quiz. Note! This quiz is worth double! It is both for your final and your first (and last) chi-square test!
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Thursday and Friday
Monday, April 23, 2007
Friday, April 20, 2007
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Monday, April 16, 2007
Monday, April 16th
HW: E4, F2, G3, I4
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Monday, April 09, 2007
Friday, April 06, 2007
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Monday, April 02, 2007
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Monday, March 19, 2007
Friday, March 16, 2007
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Test on Wednesday, March 14th
1-mean t-intervals and t-tests
Data is one variable or matched pairs
Study:
Errors and Power (Ch. 23 #17 & 19)
CLT
Ch. 25 #14ab
Ch. 23 #21 and 23
Ch. 19 #7
The fill-in-the-blank worksheet about t
The worksheet that compares alpha/tests with intervals/level
Monday, March 12, 2007
Monday, March 12th
HW: Ch. 25 #14abc, #19
Friday, March 09, 2007
Thursday & Friday
Ch. 25 #11, 12
Add a 95% confidence interval to #12
Article #11 due Friday
Note: We are going to have a test next Wednesday and another test the week after that! Hang on tight and come to school Monday ready to roll! Also note that 2nd period will make-up their missed time during SSR.
See you Monday!
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Monday, March 05, 2007
Monday, March 5th
Goal for the next 3 weeks: Do everything through chapter 25!
Goal for this week: Finish chapter 23 and start on chapter 25
Tutoring on Tuesday
Sub on Thursday
Rally on Friday
HW: Ch. 23 # 23, 24 and #8
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Thursday & Friday
Friday: Assignment from Workshop Statistics
Make-up test: Tuesday AFTER SCHOOL.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Wednesday
1-prop z-interval (Ch. 19 #21)
**Check conditions
**Write formula (but use calculator)
**Interpret interval
**Interpret level
1-prop z-test (Ch. 20 #15)
**The whole green sheet
**2 sentence conclusion
**Interpret p-value
Changing n and z* (Ch. 19 #7)
Calculate sample size (Ch. 19 #25a)
Don't forget to round up!
Explaining Errors and Power (Ch. 21 #7 & 9a)
Sampling Distribution (pink test)
Changing alpha, n and the true answer
(Ch. 21 #9bcd and #3)
Connecting intervals and tests
**Is po in the interval?
**What does that tell us?
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Monday, February 26, 2007
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Tuesday, Feb 13th
Make sure and show me some work on #23 and 25!!!
Friday, February 09, 2007
FRIDAY!!!
Then we learned that you can graph it and find all the stats. This is a handy tech tip that is not required, but might come in handy for the AP test. Especially in Chapter 16, where the expected value and standard deviation formulas can take lots of calculator work, this tech tip can be useful.
There will be an extra credit question on our next test regarding this topic.
If you want to read about this TI-Tech Tip go to:
**Page 43, last paragraph
**Page 68, last paragraph
**Page 313, the whole Tip
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Monday, February 05, 2007
Tuesday, Feb. 6th
Tuesday classwork/homework: Ch. 4 #9, Ch. 5 #23, 25, 28
CUSS'ing practice!
Quiz on these problems, first thing Wednesday!
Friday, February 02, 2007
Test on Monday...
**Ch. 17 Quiz
**Ch. 18 #9
**Ch. 18 #27
Be able to state the CLT.
See you soon!
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Thursday--a little help
22b) 31.9"
22c) What's shape? ______
What's the mean? _____
What's the sd? ______ (hint: something divided by the square root of something)
22d) 0.005
24a) skewed right--you can't stay for less than zero and a few people will stay a long time.
24b) The CLT will guarantee normality for large sample sizes. For individuals, we don't have a clue how to calculate probabilities for skewed distributions.
28a) 4.78%
28b) (1 - 0.0478)^3 = 0.863
28c) Like 22c above...
28d) Basically zero
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Monday, January 29, 2007
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Monday, January 22, 2007
January 22--First Day of Second semester!!
We learned how to get the answer on our calculator.
How to write out the formula the calculator uses.
What the formula means.
HW: Ch. 17 #13
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Final exam tips
Study the outlier rule, cussing and the obstacle course problem
Unit 2:
Study the taxi and postal rate problem, Ch. 8 #35 and Ch. 10 #1.
Unit 3:
Read all the vocab at the end of 12 and 13 and study your tri-color test.
Unit 4:
Study #1-8 on the green/white test, the prob. scrambles and the Unit IV review.
Part 5:
Normalcdfs (chapter 6) and simulations (chapter 11)
Work hard. Form a study group. See you soon!
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Monday, January 08, 2007
Monday, Jan 8th
HW: Chapter 11 #19 and Chapter 17 #13a
Info about the final exam will be posted soon.