If I set up my simulation like this:
01-72 = makes shot
73-00 = misses
here's some digits:
5730 3485 3246 75 4563
2pts 1pt 2pts 0pts 2pts.
For the 5 runs above my average would be: (2 + 1 + 2 + 0 + 2)/5 = 1.4
That's the simulation.
Now for the expected value
P(0) = 0.28 (misses first shot and is done)
P(1) = (.72)*(.28) (makes the first, misses the second)
P(2) = (.72)^2 (makes both)
Now just run the expected value formula with 0, 1, 2 and the 3 probabilities.
